Forecasts for petrol prices in Pakistan for the last two weeks of January suggest minimal fluctuations, influenced by the relatively stable global oil price trajectory witnessed in the initial week of January 2024.
Global crude prices have exhibited a degree of steadiness, with only marginal variations noted during this period, contributing to the projection of limited fluctuations in petrol prices in Pakistan.
There are indications that petrol prices in Pakistan might experience a modest decline in the upcoming weekly review scheduled for January 16. This speculation is grounded in the observed slight decrease in crude oil prices during the preceding period.
Expected adjustments in petrol and diesel prices in Pakistan are set to be implemented for the remainder of January 2024. Although certain estimates propose a potential decrease of up to Rs6 per liter, these projections are theoretical and correlate with shifts in global oil prices from the first two weeks of January 2024.
Recent developments in the oil market have led to a 1% increase in prices on Thursday, January 11, 2024. Concerns have arisen due to Iran’s seizure of an oil ship off the coast of Oman, heightening fears of escalating tensions in the Middle East.
Brent futures rose by 0.8% to $77.41 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude saw a 0.9% increase, reaching $72.02 per barrel.
The current upward trend in global oil prices may exert influence on petrol and diesel prices in Pakistan, prompting the government to consider adjusting pricing in accordance with international patterns, particularly in light of potential conflicts in the Middle East.
In the most recent weekly review, the government opted to maintain existing petrol and diesel prices in Pakistan. As of the second week of 2024, fuel prices in major Pakistani cities such as Islamabad, Lahore, Gujranwala, Gujrat, Faisalabad, Multan, Sialkot, Rawalpindi, Peshawar, and Karachi stand at Rs267.34 per liter, remaining unchanged since the second fortnight of December 2023.
It is noteworthy that certain gas outlets in Islamabad are retailing petrol at Rs268.18 per liter, revealing disparities in ex-depot petroleum product prices. Additionally, high-octane gasoline is consistently priced at Rs311.88 per liter since the final two weeks of December 2023.
Uncertainty prevails regarding whether fuel prices in Pakistan will witness an increase or decrease until an official statement is issued by the Petroleum Division, Ministry of Energy, or Ministry of Finance. The anticipated announcement, expected next week, will be applicable for the subsequent two weeks, concluding at the start of February 2024.
Given the sustained high prices of petrol and diesel in Pakistan, the public eagerly awaits the government’s decision, hoping for a substantial reduction to alleviate economic challenges. Currently, there are no evident indications of a significant decline or increase in petroleum product prices.